KEY EVENTS
In November, there was an intense diplomatic initiative by the US administration aimed at promoting a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. Despite high-level efforts and contacts, there were no tangible signs of progress sufficient to slow the current dynamics of the conflict, which continues to be characterized by high violence and a massive use of military means.
President Trump had hoped to announce a truce by Thanksgiving Day (November 27th), but this goal was not achieved. Washington, in fact, developed two distinct preliminary agreements: the first with Russia, and the second with Ukraine and the European Union.
However, these negotiation paths are mutually incompatible: as it stands, there is no common negotiating basis capable of simultaneously satisfying the positions of Moscow and Kyiv—a necessary prerequisite for launching a credible and lasting peace process.
Outside of this dossier, the geopolitical scenario in November did not bring forth new crises comparable in intensity and relevance to the conflict in Eastern Europe. The truce signed in the Israeli-Palestinian war is also not considered particularly solid, and clashes certainly did not cease.
The international context continues to be characterized by a structural transformation of global balances: the long phase of globalization is increasingly giving way to a configuration where a strategic duopoly between the United States and China prevails. This duopoly is set to influence the main economic and security spheres, redefining value chains and the relationship between political power, technological development, and energy supply.
November 14: “Declaration of intent between the USA and Switzerland on US additional tariffs…on this basis, the United States will reduce the country-specific additional tariff to 15%. … Switzerland will reduce import duties on a range of US products….”
In November, no meetings of the main central banks were scheduled, with the exception of the Bank of England (whose meeting did not produce any notable outcomes).
The economic environment in the United States was dominated by two factors: on one hand, the statement made by the FED Chairman at the end of October, according to which a further rate cut at the regular December meeting “is by no means a done deal”; on the other hand, the limited number of macroeconomic data releases following the suspension of numerous federal activities due to the government shutdown.
The economy and financial markets therefore find themselves in a delicate phase, in which the lack of reliable indications both on the evolution of the economic cycle and on the stance the central bank intends to take in the face of still significant risks to both of its mandates (inflation and growth) is resulting in greater uncertainty and, consequently, higher market volatility.
PROSPECTS
Ecco il testo con gli a capo sistemati per una lettura più chiara, senza alcuna modifica al testo originale:
We are of the opinion that the so-called “Santa Claus rally” will also characterize the end of 2025, with only one difference compared to the norm: it will start a few weeks later. The main unknown remains what the major central banks will say and/or do during their final meeting of the year.
It will therefore be important to seize any insights that may help better prepare portfolios for the 2026—a period that does not appear likely to bring major short-term changes. On the other hand, in the medium to long term, we will have to deal with important developments, the most significant of which will very likely relate to the economic and inflationary outlook in the United States, with (as of May) a new person at the helm of the Federal Reserve.
It will be a Chair who will undoubtedly move forward with a change in philosophy—namely, a closer alignment with the White House.
We would like to take this opportunity to wish you and your loved ones much peace and joy for the upcoming Christmas holidays.