Monthly letter June 2025

Key events

June showed how quickly the world can teeter on the brink of a globalconflict in just a matter of hours.
The events involving Israel, Iran, and theUnited States marked one of the most dangerous moments of the year –and perhaps of the decade.

The world watched with bated breath as anescalation began that could have spiraled into a large-scale regional war,with potentially global implications.

It all began with a coordinated Israeli military operation against Iranian nuclear sites — surprise attacks conducted with surgical precision against the installations at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan.

The strike was devastating, targeting not only strategic infrastructure but also key symbols of Iran’s nuclear program.Tehran’s response was swift: over 150 ballistic missiles and drones were launched against Israel, while an American base in Qatar was directly hit.

This marked the point at which the United States became directly involved.In the following hours, the escalation intensified: the United States responded with a series of targeted airstrikes, carried out by B-2 stealth bombers, hitting Iran’s long-range military installations.

The images and official statements were unequivocal: the targeted sites were said to be“completely obliterated”. President Trump described it as a “spectacularmilitary success” and issued a stern warning: any retaliation by Iran wouldbe met with “even greater force.”

Nato leaders commit to invest 5% GDP on defence by 2025, back Ukraine. Nato leaders have committed to invest 5% of GDP annually on defence and security-related spending by 2035 “ to ensure our individual ans collective obligations”are met. According to the final text of the Hague summit declaration adopted just now.

The world held its breath for days as the risk of a direct conflict betweenIran and the United States intensified.
The potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting surge in energy prices shook global markets:oil prices soared, stock markets lost ground, and the dollar weakened to multi-year lows. In this tense atmosphere, the NATO summit was held in The Hague. President Trump called for an increase in military spending to 5% of GDP, invoking the need to strengthen deterrence.

The principle of collective defense was reaffirmed, but tensions emerged between the United States and some European partners — a sign of how fragileWestern unity is in times of crisis. On the economic front, there was a temporary easing of trade tensions between theUnited States, China, and Europe.

This helped restore market stability after high volatility at the start of the month.
TheFederal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but signaled the possibility of future easing; the ECB cut rates by 25 basis points to support growth.

Advanced economies are showing some resilience, but they remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. The message June leaves behind is unequivocal: global stability is precarious. Just a few hours of escalation can push the world to the brink of a systemic crisis.

The calm regained at the end of the month may be only superficial — likely to vanish without strong leadership and a shared vision.

Prospects

Macroeconomic prospects remain decent, but not without uncertainties.Central banks appear intent on maintaining a cautious approach, although the future direction will largely depend on incoming data and the evolution of geopolitical and trade tensions. In particular, the July 9 deadline set by Donald Trump to avoid new tariffs represents a potential turning point. In the absence of an agreement, negative market reactions cannot be ruled out.

Political negotiations will therefore continue in the coming weeks, fueling a climate of uncertainty. Meanwhile, earnings season is approaching, and many companies will need to reflect the impact of the new tariffs in the irreports. Guidance and margin outlooks will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of current valuations, especially in the United States.

With summer approaching, the usual drop in trading volumes could amplify volatility, making the investment landscape more fragile and unpredictable.